Legendary horse trainer Bart Cummings had a famous formula that might just predict the winner of the 2022 Melbourne Cup.
Cummings, who died in 2015, won Australia’s favourite race a record 12 times, the most recent in 2008.
Form analyst Nic Ashman explained to Wide World of Sports for Bet365.
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“He had a theory that in order to win a Melbourne Cup you (the horse) had to have 10km in your legs in your current preparation, and you also had to run the Saturday before the Melbourne Cup,” Ashman explained of the Cummings formula.
“There’s just one horse that fits that bill (this year), and that’s Stockman.”
The Joseph Pride trained gelding Stockman was rated as a $29 shot by Bet365 as of Sunday afternoon.
INTERNATIONAL RAID AND AUSSIE HOPES
There’s a host of international raiders who have flown Down Under this year to take a stab at the $7.75 million Melbourne Cup.
The short-priced favourite is Deauville Legend, trained in Great Britain and heavily backed to get the chocolates on Tuesday.
But a swarm of Aussie horses are hoping to repeat what Vow And Declare did in 2019, and trounce the foreign rivals.
Vow and Declare wins Melbourne Cup
Vow And Declare will line up in the Cup again this week, but there’s other local hopes in with a serious chance.
“As far as the Australian contingent goes it’s definitely down on quality on past years, so that makes it more so a winnable race for these international runners,” Ashman said.
“You’ve always got to look for the best weighted horse in the race, and that’s got to be Lunar Flare for Grahame Begg.
“She gets down to 51kg after running some really good races wearing more weight than that. She’s out of Fiorente who won the Cup for Gai Waterhouse a few years back.
“Speaking of Gai… Knights Order won the Sydney Cup on a heavy track back in the autumn, and don’t forget it’s expected to be Armageddon here (at Flemington) on Tuesday, so (it and Hoo Ya Mal) are two of the best chances from the Australian representatives.”
Ashman says Point Nepean and Serpentine are also in the mix to win an eighth Melbourne Cup for prolific owner Lloyd Williams.
THE RACE FAVOURITE
English raider Deauville Legend was on Sunday rated a $3.60 favourite to win the Melbourne Cup with Bet365.
The gelding has only had seven starts, but has three wins and three second placings under his belt, and comes to Australia with high expectations.
“He’s got the best ratings of any horse in the race, he’s about three lengths clear of the next best European horse,” Ashman said.
“But he’s a northern hemisphere three-year-old, they typically have a great recordv (in the Melbourne Cup). They won the race in 2017 with Rekindling, and again in 2018 with Cross Counter. They were an unlucky second with Il Paradiso in 2019, and again second with Tiger Moth in 2020.
“It’s certainly the age bracket that goes really well.
“The problem is he’s got 55kg, which is way more than any of them have had to carry. The handicappers are well and truly clued on to the fact the northern hemisphere three-year-olds are the horses to beat.
“He’s got a bit of weight on his back, he’s also untested on anything other than good ground, and that’s got to be a concern.
“But there is no doubting his class, he is the best horse in the race.”
ASHMAN’S RACE TIPS
1st Deauville Legend
2nd Lunar Flare
3rd Point Nepean
6th Knights Order
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